Tuesday 31, July 2018 by Bloomberg

IMF urges South Africa to fight graft as post-1994 gains unwind

 

Investigations by the anti-corruption ombudsman have indicated that billions of rand were looted from state companies by businessmen and officials with close ties to former President Jacob Zuma.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the South African authorities should deepen the fight against corruption and change its labour and product markets as some of the nation’s post-apartheid achievements have “recently unwound” amid slow economic growth.

IMF directors recommended “the forceful application of the Public Financial Management Act to increase deterrence against corruption." They called for the completion of pro-investment, job-creating measures in the telecommunications and mining industries, and said more progress is needed to contain fiscal risks from debt-laden state-owned companies.

IMF officials issued the statement after so-called Article IV consultations with local authorities.

Africa’s most-industrialised economy hasn’t grown at more than two per cent since 2013. Bailouts for troubled state companies such as Eskom Holdings as well as South African Airways have raised risks that the National Treasury will breach its spending limits.

“The country has potential but the key challenge is to raise growth,” Montfort Mlachila, the lender’s senior resident representative in the country, said by phone. “Without increasing growth, you’re really just shuffling the chairs on the deck, you need to expand the size of the pie.”

Per-capita economic growth has turned negative, the jobless rate is near a 15-year high of 26.7 per cent, and income inequality is among the highest globally, added IMF. Business confidence has slipped every month since reaching a more than two-year high in January as industries await real reforms under the tenure of new President Cyril Ramaphosa.

“Significant vulnerabilities arise from fiscal risks related to weak and poorly managed state-owned enterprises,” the IMF said. The state’s guarantees of Eskom’s outstanding securities total about seven per cent of gross domestic product, Treasury data show.

The lender maintained its forecast for economic growth this year at 1.5 per cent and left the 2019 estimate at 1.7 per cent.

The current-account deficit will probably expand to 2.9 per cent of GDP this year and 3.3 per cent in 2019, it said. In its February budget, the National Treasury forecast a gap of 2.3 per cent for this year and 2.7 per cent in the following 12 months. The deficit was 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2017.

“External risks include large gross external financing needs, and a current-account deficit financed by flows that are prone to sudden reversals in response to abrupt changes in global financial conditions and sovereign credit ratings,” the IMF said.

The government is committed to reducing the deficit and stabilising debt, said the National Treasury.

  

  

Features & Analyses

Economics Adapting to a new era

  Abdullah Al-Fozan, Chairman of KPMG MESA and KPMG Saudi Arabia, provides an exclusive commentary on the Kingdom’s business… read more