Thursday 30, August 2018 by Bloomberg

Saudi bulls retreat after Aramco let down adds to shock over policy

 

The Arab world’s biggest bourse is losing its appeal to foreigners just two months after it won inclusion in MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market index.

That’s because the initial euphoria surrounding Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to overhaul the nation’s economy has given way to scepticism as the Kingdom put on hold the initial public offering of oil giant Aramco. A dispute over Canada’s criticism of the jailing of Saudi rights activists has also heightened concerns over the prince’s increasingly assertive policy and the impact it would have on capital flows.

Overseas money managers turned net sellers of Saudi stocks in six of the past eight weeks after MSCI said it will include the country in its emerging-market equity indexes starting June 2019. Global factors, including the roll-back of crisis-era stimulus and a global trade skirmish, have also dented demand for riskier assets.

The selling in Saudi stocks by foreign investors has become more widespread, reflecting concerns “about stalling or even reversed reforms,” said Marshall Stocker, a Boston-based portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Corp. whose fund isn’t invested in the Kingdom. “Until we see a commitment to firmly adopting policies which lead to an increase in economic freedom, we doubt the Saudi Arabian equity market will outperform.”

Overseas investors pulled a net SAR 660.6 million ($176 million) from Saudi equities in the eight weeks ended 16 August. In contrast, they had poured $153 million in the eight weeks leading up to MSCI’s announcement. The oil-rich Kingdom’s key stock index has dropped 5.6 per cent from a peak in July, curbing its advance this year to 11 per cent.

While its 2018 gain is considerable compared to the almost eight per cent drop in emerging-market stocks, the gauge is lagging measures in neighbouring Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

Saudi Arabia had gone to great lengths in recent months to suggest that change may now be in the air, giving women the right to drive and reopening cinemas. But in recent months, women’s-rights activists have been imprisoned and prosecutors are currently seeking to behead Israa al-Ghomgam, who participated in anti-government protests in the eastern part of the country.

Then there’s the Kingdom’s clash with Canada. Saudi Arabia froze diplomatic ties and new business deals with the North American nation this month for criticizing its treatment of women activists. And the diplomatic split with Qatar shows no signs of healing.

The decision to shelve Aramco’s IPO—billed as potentially the world’s biggest—in part reflects the Kingdom’s much stronger fiscal position, given the government’s spending reform and rise in oil prices, according to Emirates NBD PJSC.

Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is set to narrow to 4.6 per cent of gross domestic product this year, from 9.3 per cent in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund. The lender said in a report it expects the deficit to come down further to 1.7 per cent in 2019 due to better collection of a new value-added tax, the assumed expiry of royal handouts, more energy price increases and the containment of spending.

“Investors need to take a longer-term view—10 years plus—on reform delivery,” said John Delaney, a Dublin-based money manager at Fideuram ISP.

While a cancellation or delay in Aramco’s IPO would slightly reduce investor interest in Saudi Arabia, its upgrade to emerging-market status by foreign index compilers “is still an important positive driver,” Delaney said. The nation accounts for about a third of the weighting in a fund focusing on Africa and the Middle East which Fideuram launched in June, he said.

Saudi Arabia’s inclusion in FTSE Russell and MSCI’s developing-country benchmarks will likely attract $15 billion in inflows combined in the 12 months between their respective announcements this year and implementation dates in 2019, said Fahd Iqbal, head of Middle East research at Credit Suisse Group AG.

When the IPO was initially flagged in 2016, Saudi officials hoped it would raise as much as $100 billion, based on a $2 trillion valuation that some analysts have said was too high. The sale was designed to provide the core funding for the prince’s sweeping plans to cut the Kingdom’s reliance on oil. Khalid al-Falih, the energy minister, said last week it would continue to work toward an IPO when conditions were right.

But Saudi Arabia is pursuing alternative transactions that may help it to pursue its grand plan. Aramco is weighing selling bonds abroad for the first time in what could be the largest offering ever by a corporate, according to people familiar with the talks. The cash will help fund an acquisition of a stake in petrochemical maker Sabic, valued at about $70 billion.

In turn, the Public Investment Fund, which owns 70 per cent of Sabic, would obtain the money it had initially hoped to raise from the Aramco IPO, the same people said, asking not to be named because the talks are private.

“Many see the IPO as a cornerstone to fund ambitious reforms in the Kingdom,” said Michael Bolliger, the Zurich-based head of emerging-market asset allocation at UBS Wealth Management’s chief investment office. “The future path of domestic reforms will be closely monitored by investors going forward, as it is a key assumption behind the investment thesis of many.”

Features & Analyses

Economics Adapting to a new era

  Abdullah Al-Fozan, Chairman of KPMG MESA and KPMG Saudi Arabia, provides an exclusive commentary on the Kingdom’s business… read more